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09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies shoot for their sixth straight win and try to complete season sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies, who also swept the Brewers in a three-game set back in May, scored the go-ahead run on Ryan Braun's throwing error in the bottom of the seventh on Saturday and eked out a 5-4 win.
Trailing, 4-3, in the seventh, the Phillies had the bases loaded with one out. Placido Polanco stepped to the plate and lofted a sacrifice fly to left to deliver the tying run in Carlos Ruiz. Braun's throw home took a few bounces before rolling past catcher Jonathan Lucroy. That allowed Wilson Valdez to cross the plate for a 5-4 edge.
The bullpen held strong over the final two innings to make a winner of Roy Halladay (17-10), who gave up four runs on seven hits to snap a two-start skid. The right-hander also struck out six and walked two, but allowed a career-high four homers.
"I left some pitches up. Location was obviously an issue at times," Halladay said. "Fortunately, they were solo homers and we were able to score the two big runs in the seventh inning."
Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth each hit solo homers for Philadelphia, which remained one game behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and stayed three games in front of San Francisco for the wild card spot.
The Phillies are 8-1 since being swept at home by Houston in four games Aug. 23-26.
Corey Hart hit a pair of solo homers for the Brewers, who also got a home run apiece from Prince Fielder and Alcides Escobar.
Dave Bush went six innings in the start, giving up three runs on six hits. He also fanned five batters and walked one for Milwaukee, which has dropped five straight contests. Kameron Loe (3-4) was charged with both runs in the seventh to take the loss.
"We had the lead in the seventh inning. We have to find somebody out of this bullpen that's going to hold it," Brewers manager Ken Macha said.
Heading to the hill for the Phillies this afternoon will be righty Kyle Kendrick, who is 9-7 with a 4.72 earned run average. Kendrick earned the win on Tuesday in Los Angeles, but allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings.
Kendrick has faced the Brewers twice and is 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA.
Milwaukee will counter with veteran left-hander Randy Wolf, who is winless in his last two starts after a three-start winning streak. Wolf did not get a decision on Monday in Cincinnati, as the Reds reached him for three runs and eight hits in five innings of a 5-4 loss.
He is 10-10 on the year with a 4.76 ERA.
Wolf, who pitched the first eight years of his career in Philadelphia, is 1-2 in six starts against his former team with a 5.79 ERA. He was hammered by the Phils back on May 14 for six runs in five innings.
Philadelphia, which has won seven of the past nine meetings between the two ball clubs, also went 6-0 against the Brewers in 2004.
<< Minor shoots for fourth straight win in rubber match with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Mike Minor goes for a fourth straight win this
afternoon when the Atlanta Braves play the rubber match of their three-game
series against the Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.
After getting a no-decision in his b
<< Yanks should have A-Rod back for finale with Jays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees have put together their longest
winning streak of the season without the presence of Alex Rodriguez in their
lineup. The All-Star third baseman hopes to provide the American League East
leaders a further
<< White Sox target rare sweep at Fenway
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After putting what could be the final nail in the coffin
in regards to the Boston Red Sox' playoff hopes with Saturday's performance,
the Chicago White Sox now set their sights on earning their first series sweep
in Fenway Pa
<< Davis goes for seventh straight win in Baltimore
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wade Davis has been awfully tough to beat over the past
two-plus months. Against the Baltimore Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher has
been just about invincible during his brief tenure in the majors.
Davis tries to extend
A's try to break out the brooms on Angels >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim haven't been swept in a
series of at least three games by the Oakland Athletics in more than six
years, partly due to the success Ervin Santana has produced against the team's
American League
Jimenez holds off Molinari to win European Masters >>
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After nearly coughing up a six-
stroke lead, Miguel Angel Jimenez birdied the 17th hole Sunday to fend off
Ryder Cup teammate Edoardo Molinari and win the European Masters.
Jimenez closed w
Wilson, Rangers hope to avoid sweep in Minnesota >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the
Minnesota Twins, the Texas Rangers may have the right pitcher on the mound
today to accomplish that goal.
C.J. Wilson will attempt to register his eighth consecutive winni
Giants, Dodgers play rubber match at Chavez Ravine >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hiroki Kuroda nearly threw a no-hitter in his last trip to
the hill. Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers will settle for a win, as they
play the rubber match of their three-game set against the San Francisco Giants
at Dodgers St
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting